Jan 15, 2008

Toward a Nuclear-Free World

By GEORGE P. SHULTZ, WILLIAM J. PERRY, HENRY A. KISSINGER and SAM NUNN
January 15, 2008; Wall Street Journal - Commentary, Page A13

The accelerating spread of nuclear weapons, nuclear know-how and nuclear material has brought us to a nuclear tipping point. We face a very real possibility that the deadliest weapons ever invented could fall into dangerous hands.

The steps we are taking now to address these threats are not adequate to the danger. With nuclear weapons more widely available, deterrence is decreasingly effective and increasingly hazardous.

One year ago, in an essay in this paper, we called for a global effort to reduce reliance on nuclear weapons, to prevent their spread into potentially dangerous hands, and ultimately to end them as a threat to the world. The interest, momentum and growing political space that has been created to address these issues over the past year has been extraordinary, with strong positive responses from people all over the world.

Mikhail Gorbachev wrote in January 2007 that, as someone who signed the first treaties on real reductions in nuclear weapons, he thought it his duty to support our call for urgent action: "It is becoming clearer that nuclear weapons are no longer a means of achieving security; in fact, with every passing year they make our security more precarious."

In June, the United Kingdom's foreign secretary, Margaret Beckett, signaled her government's support, stating: "What we need is both a vision -- a scenario for a world free of nuclear weapons -- and action -- progressive steps to reduce warhead numbers and to limit the role of nuclear weapons in security policy. These two strands are separate but they are mutually reinforcing. Both are necessary, but at the moment too weak."

We have also been encouraged by additional indications of general support for this project from other former U.S. officials with extensive experience as secretaries of state and defense and national security advisors. These include: Madeleine Albright, Richard V. Allen, James A. Baker III, Samuel R. Berger, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Frank Carlucci, Warren Christopher, William Cohen, Lawrence Eagleburger, Melvin Laird, Anthony Lake, Robert McFarlane, Robert McNamara and Colin Powell.

Inspired by this reaction, in October 2007, we convened veterans of the past six administrations, along with a number of other experts on nuclear issues, for a conference at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. There was general agreement about the importance of the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons as a guide to our thinking about nuclear policies, and about the importance of a series of steps that will pull us back from the nuclear precipice.

The U.S. and Russia, which possess close to 95% of the world's nuclear warheads, have a special responsibility, obligation and experience to demonstrate leadership, but other nations must join.

Some steps are already in progress, such as the ongoing reductions in the number of nuclear warheads deployed on long-range, or strategic, bombers and missiles. Other near-term steps that the U.S. and Russia could take, beginning in 2008, can in and of themselves dramatically reduce nuclear dangers. They include:

Extend key provisions of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty of 1991. Much has been learned about the vital task of verification from the application of these provisions. The treaty is scheduled to expire on Dec. 5, 2009. The key provisions of this treaty, including their essential monitoring and verification requirements, should be extended, and the further reductions agreed upon in the 2002 Moscow Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions should be completed as soon as possible.

Take steps to increase the warning and decision times for the launch of all nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, thereby reducing risks of accidental or unauthorized attacks. Reliance on launch procedures that deny command authorities sufficient time to make careful and prudent decisions is unnecessary and dangerous in today's environment. Furthermore, developments in cyber-warfare pose new threats that could have disastrous consequences if the command-and-control systems of any nuclear-weapons state were compromised by mischievous or hostile hackers. Further steps could be implemented in time, as trust grows in the U.S.-Russian relationship, by introducing mutually agreed and verified physical barriers in the command-and-control sequence.

Discard any existing operational plans for massive attacks that still remain from the Cold War days. Interpreting deterrence as requiring mutual assured destruction (MAD) is an obsolete policy in today's world, with the U.S. and Russia formally having declared that they are allied against terrorism and no longer perceive each other as enemies.

Undertake negotiations toward developing cooperative multilateral ballistic-missile defense and early warning systems, as proposed by Presidents Bush and Putin at their 2002 Moscow summit meeting. This should include agreement on plans for countering missile threats to Europe, Russia and the U.S. from the Middle East, along with completion of work to establish the Joint Data Exchange Center in Moscow. Reducing tensions over missile defense will enhance the possibility of progress on the broader range of nuclear issues so essential to our security. Failure to do so will make broader nuclear cooperation much more difficult.

Dramatically accelerate work to provide the highest possible standards of security for nuclear weapons, as well as for nuclear materials everywhere in the world, to prevent terrorists from acquiring a nuclear bomb. There are nuclear weapons materials in more than 40 countries around the world, and there are recent reports of alleged attempts to smuggle nuclear material in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. The U.S., Russia and other nations that have worked with the Nunn-Lugar programs, in cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), should play a key role in helping to implement United Nations Security Council Resolution 1540 relating to improving nuclear security -- by offering teams to assist jointly any nation in meeting its obligations under this resolution to provide for appropriate, effective security of these materials.

As Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger put it in his address at our October conference, "Mistakes are made in every other human endeavor. Why should nuclear weapons be exempt?" To underline the governor's point, on Aug. 29-30, 2007, six cruise missiles armed with nuclear warheads were loaded on a U.S. Air Force plane, flown across the country and unloaded. For 36 hours, no one knew where the warheads were, or even that they were missing.

Start a dialogue, including within NATO and with Russia, on consolidating the nuclear weapons designed for forward deployment to enhance their security, and as a first step toward careful accounting for them and their eventual elimination. These smaller and more portable nuclear weapons are, given their characteristics, inviting acquisition targets for terrorist groups.

Strengthen the means of monitoring compliance with the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a counter to the global spread of advanced technologies. More progress in this direction is urgent, and could be achieved through requiring the application of monitoring provisions (Additional Protocols) designed by the IAEA to all signatories of the NPT.

Adopt a process for bringing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) into effect, which would strengthen the NPT and aid international monitoring of nuclear activities. This calls for a bipartisan review, first, to examine improvements over the past decade of the international monitoring system to identify and locate explosive underground nuclear tests in violation of the CTBT; and, second, to assess the technical progress made over the past decade in maintaining high confidence in the reliability, safety and effectiveness of the nation's nuclear arsenal under a test ban. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization is putting in place new monitoring stations to detect nuclear tests -- an effort the U.S should urgently support even prior to ratification.


In parallel with these steps by the U.S. and Russia, the dialogue must broaden on an international scale, including non-nuclear as well as nuclear nations.

Key subjects include turning the goal of a world without nuclear weapons into a practical enterprise among nations, by applying the necessary political will to build an international consensus on priorities. The government of Norway will sponsor a conference in February that will contribute to this process.

Another subject: Developing an international system to manage the risks of the nuclear fuel cycle. With the growing global interest in developing nuclear energy and the potential proliferation of nuclear enrichment capabilities, an international program should be created by advanced nuclear countries and a strengthened IAEA. The purpose should be to provide for reliable supplies of nuclear fuel, reserves of enriched uranium, infrastructure assistance, financing, and spent fuel management -- to ensure that the means to make nuclear weapons materials isn't spread around the globe.

There should also be an agreement to undertake further substantial reductions in U.S. and Russian nuclear forces beyond those recorded in the U.S.-Russia Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty. As the reductions proceed, other nuclear nations would become involved.

President Reagan's maxim of "trust but verify" should be reaffirmed. Completing a verifiable treaty to prevent nations from producing nuclear materials for weapons would contribute to a more rigorous system of accounting and security for nuclear materials.

We should also build an international consensus on ways to deter or, when required, to respond to, secret attempts by countries to break out of agreements.

Progress must be facilitated by a clear statement of our ultimate goal. Indeed, this is the only way to build the kind of international trust and broad cooperation that will be required to effectively address today's threats. Without the vision of moving toward zero, we will not find the essential cooperation required to stop our downward spiral.

In some respects, the goal of a world free of nuclear weapons is like the top of a very tall mountain. From the vantage point of our troubled world today, we can't even see the top of the mountain, and it is tempting and easy to say we can't get there from here. But the risks from continuing to go down the mountain or standing pat are too real to ignore. We must chart a course to higher ground where the mountaintop becomes more visible.

Mr. Shultz was secretary of state from 1982 to 1989. Mr. Perry was secretary of defense from 1994 to 1997. Mr. Kissinger was secretary of state from 1973 to 1977. Mr. Nunn is former chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

The following participants in the Hoover-NTI conference also endorse the view in this statement: General John Abizaid, Graham Allison, Brooke Anderson, Martin Anderson, Steve Andreasen, Mike Armacost, Bruce Blair, Matt Bunn, Ashton Carter, Sidney Drell, General Vladimir Dvorkin, Bob Einhorn, Mark Fitzpatrick, James Goodby, Rose Gottemoeller, Tom Graham, David Hamburg, Siegfried Hecker, Tom Henriksen, David Holloway, Raymond Jeanloz, Ray Juzaitis, Max Kampelman, Jack Matlock, Michael McFaul, John McLaughlin, Don Oberdorfer, Pavel Podvig, William Potter, Richard Rhodes, Joan Rohlfing, Harry Rowen, Scott Sagan, Roald Sagdeev, Abe Sofaer, Richard Solomon, and Philip Zelikow.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm perplexed. There is nothing in this article about building pits and doing plutonium science! How could that be?

Anonymous said...

11:37,
Actually, pits and plutonium would
be covered under the section about
the CTBT, namely,

"and, second, to assess the technical
progress made over the past decade in
maintaining high confidence in the
reliability, safety and effectiveness of
the nation's nuclear arsenal under a test
ban."

Anonymous said...

***YAWN***

Friggin' Henry Kissinger, for Christ's sake! Look at the "sponsor" list - quite a few ex-nuclear weapon bosses (including Sig and RayJ) who've apparently found Jesus, or somebody. Yep, they'll change history. Overnight. Just wait, you'll see. Obama will make it happen.

Anonymous said...

I thought Schultz was a Bechtelian.

Anonymous said...

George Schultz is a long time member of the Board at Bechtel, as are many other prominent 'country club' Republicans.

Bloggers might also find this tidbit interesting. Many of these guys know each other from Riley Bechtel's Bohemian encampments:

From sfweekly.com

Originally published by SF Weekly Jun 18, 2003

...............................
The World According to Bechtel
...............................

There are well-connected companies. Then there's Bechtel.

BY LISA DAVIS

The Bohemian Club - Bohemian Grove

San Francisco's exclusive men's club hosts an annual encampment in Sonoma County where the most powerful men in America gather to socialize. Riley, Gary, and Stephen Bechtel are all members, as is Riley's brother-in-law Alan Dachs, George Shultz, and other Bechtel intimates. The following members have shared lodges, according to a 2001 roster:

Mandalay Camp
------------

(Host to Riley Bechtel and Stephen D. Bechtel Jr.)

Colin L. Powell -- secretary of state; former chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff; former assistant to the president for National Security Affairs.

Henry Kissinger -- former secretary of state (1973-1977); chairman, Kissinger Associates international consulting firm.

...

George P. Shultz -- former secretary of state (1982-1989), secretary of the treasury (1972-1974), and secretary of labor (1969-1970); distinguished fellow, Hoover Institution; director, Bechtel Group Inc., Fremont Group LLC**, and Charles Schwab & Co. Inc.


Hillbillies Camp
----------------

(Host to Alan Dachs, president and CEO of the Fremont Group and director of Bechtel Group Inc.)

Christopher Buckley -- editor, Forbes FYI magazine; speechwriter for former Vice President George H.W. Bush; political satirist.

William F. Buckley Jr. -- founder and editor, National Review magazine; political columnist.

George H.W. Bush -- former president (1989-1993), vice president (1981-1989), ambassador to the United Nations (1971-1973), director of the CIA (1976-1977), congressman (1967-1971), and chairman of the Republican National Committee (1973-1974).

Walter Cronkite -- former broadcast journalist; author.

William H. Draper III -- former president and chairman, Export-Import Bank of the United States (1981-1986); former director, United Nations Development Program (1986); founder and managing director, Draper International venture capital firm.

William C. Edwards -- overseer, Hoover Institution.

Evan G. Galbraith Jr. -- U.S. defense representative in Europe and defense adviser to the U.S. mission to NATO; former ambassador to France (1981-1985); advisory director, Morgan Stanley; chairman, National Review.

James W. Symington -- former U.S. representative (1969-1977); former chief of protocol, Department of State (1966-1968).

Donald H. Rumsfeld -- secretary of defense (2001-present, 1975-1977); former assistant to the president and director of White House operations (1974-1975); former U.S. representative (1963-69).

Anonymous said...

Maybe Mikey will be invited to the next Bechtel all-male SanFran Bohemian encampment. Those boys might enjoy having the companionship of a Fuzzy Ewok at their nightly camp fires. Just watch out for that lusty Mr. Kissinger. I hear he has wandering hands.

Anonymous said...

"To underline the governor's point, on Aug. 29-30, 2007, six cruise missiles armed with nuclear warheads were loaded on a U.S. Air Force plane, flown across the country and unloaded. For 36 hours, no one knew where the warheads were, or even that they were missing."

Talk about a safety and security screw-up, this one was the Mother-lode! It still boggles my mind that something like this could have happened with our nukes. And this was a story that made it out into the open news. I can only imagine some of the US military's nuclear horror stories that never got revealed to the press.

Anonymous said...

>I can only imagine some of the US
>military's nuclear horror stories that
>never got revealed to the press.
-------------------------------------
11:27,

They usually make it to the press.
How about the time a Titan II missile
blew up in the early '80s in one of our
southern states.

How would you like to be the Governor of
a State and have the Air Force come to
you and say a missile blew up and tossed
the warhead somewhere; we don't know
where. But we are out looking for it."

Well that actually happened to one
Governor William J. Clinton.

Check out the movie "Disaster at
Silo 7" with Peter Boyle and Dennis
Weaver that was based on this true
story.

Anonymous said...

These kinds of incidents("broken arrows"), of which there have been dozens since WWII, some causing widespread contamination in foreign countries, should be kept in mind whenever anyone suggests turning over nuclear weapon research and development to the military.